NZ 2017 Post-Election Limbo: My Thoughts

One and a half weeks ago, the people of New Zealand went to the polls to determine the make up of our next Parliament. Election night was a letdown for all sides, with no established bloc able to command a majority. Like 1996 and 2005, New Zealand First finds itself holding the balance of power*.

Firstly let’s note that National didn’t win. While it’s disheartening to know that ~46% of voters are either gullible or sociopathic, the centre-right is in trouble. Its coalition partners have either been taken out or rendered irrelevant. For National to stay in government, they need to do a deal with either NZF or the Greens.

Coalition negotiations have not begun yet, largely in part because special votes are still being processed and the final result may result in a few seats changing hands. Winston Peters, the leader of NZF has shown little interest in starting negotiations until the final result is clear. And fair enough, there’s no point coming to an agreement now that could be jeopardised when circumstances will change.

In this vacant period, news media and political operatives have started interviewing their typewriters and put out some truly dreadful dreck during the past week. Let’s go through those now:

National has a right to govern: No it doesn’t, and it’s unsettling that commentators are claiming that National has some kind of “moral” authority (warning: NZ Herald) to form the next government. Besides the fact that “National” and “morality” don’t belong in the same sentence, there is no constitutional stipulation that the largest party has priority when forming a government.

National/Green coalition: This idea is frankly ridiculous. Environmentalism and right-wing politics are fundamentally incompatible. When the right wing stop putting money and conservative organised religion before everything else, then there may be a case to be made. The Green Party would be nothing more than window dressing to make National look better. All of the analysis behind it is completely unwarranted as the Green Party membership can (and will) block the parliamentary Greens from coalescing with National.

Trying to read Winston: NZF has always promoted a weird mixture of left and right policy, hence both sides are quick to point out similarities and proclaim that NZF should go with them. I think James Shaw was correct to point out the common ground between Labour, Green and NZF during his election night speech. It’s much easier to imagine the three agreeing on a policy schedule that doesn’t deviate too far from what they campaigned on. Meanwhile, it’s hard to see National abandoning free-market economics and cutting immigration rates.

Peters hasn’t appreciated this idle speculation while the votes are still being counted and nobly insists that personal issues with the National Party will be put aside during negotiations. I don’t think he will be able to detach his feelings towards National and I don’t expect him to. National ran a deplorable campaign filled with lies, hollow bribes and dirty attacks that almost pushed NZF out of parliament. It’s not just a matter of personal relations, National cannot be trusted to govern fairly and transparently in the interests of all New Zealanders. It is my opinion that Peters should not reward such scumbaggery with another term in government.

MMP is Broken: Fairfax let two of their far-right headbangers out of the asylum to attack our quasi-proportional MMP electoral system (Grant’s article is here, du Frense’s is here). Their arguments are nothing more than the characteristic whining sounds made by arrogant National supporters. Apparently it’s an affront that their party has been denied minority rule. The fact of the matter is whoever can muster the support of 50% + 1 seats forms the government.  It makes no difference whether that is one, two, three, or four(!) parties. Common complaints about how small parties holding the country to ransom have popped up again. One just needs to look back to the UK in June to see that the same outcomes are just as possible in FPP systems.

That’s not to suggest that MMP is perfect. The 5% threshold has shown to be unfit for purpose. Parties such as ACT  and United Dunne Future have/had no real constituency to speak of, yet they are/were entitled to parliamentary seats. Meanwhile, NZF in 2008, Colin Craig’s Conservative Party in 2011/2014 and Gareth Morgan’s The Opportunities Party in 2017 gained many more party votes and no seats. I think the threshold should be lowered to 0.8% (i.e. 1 parliamentary seat) to mitigate the disproportionality of micro parties that rely on winning an electorate seat. A lower threshold means less wasted vote, which keeps the National Party further away from power, which is always a good thing.

With National likely to lose more seats once the special votes have been counted, I expect this week will see intensification of the corporatist demands for NZF or the Greens to give National the coronation they believe is their right. I can only hope both minor parties stay strong and will be able to make a deal between Labour and themselves. The three have already shown themselves to be a competent and responsible administration (sort of, the Greens were at arms length during the 48th parliament). We look set to be facing an opportunity for such a government again. I, along with many other New Zealanders encourage Labour, the Greens and NZF to take this opportunity for the good of our country.

*Balance of Power also happens to be the title of the 1986 album by the Electric Light Orchestra. Heaven Only Knows what the outcome will be. Stable government is So Serious, it’s good to see the parties Getting to the Point. The negotiators are living Secret Lives while the negotiation details are hidden from the media. Is it Alright that the National Party was able to run a campaign of Endless Lies?
Advertisements

NZ 2017, Voting in the Waimakariri Electorate: Dan’s Our Man!

Following up to my endorsement of the Green Party for my party vote, I’m going to cover my candidate vote for the Waimakariri electorate. I have evangelised about the MMP system many times before. In practice, each person has two votes: the aforementioned party vote and a candidate vote. Think of the candidate vote as an FPP sub-election, while the partisan makeup of parliament is largely controlled by the party vote results.

The Waimakariri electorate is unique in the sense that it contains urban centres such as northern Christchurch, Rangiora and Kaiapoi, and large rural area of North Canterbury. Historically, it has been a marginal seat where the margin of victory between the Labour and National candidates is quite small. Subsequently, there has been some media focus on Waimakariri as an indicative “bellweather” that closely reflects the nationwide vote, including the Rangiora Borough School polling booth whose votes have been consistent with the election outcomes since the 1980s.

Like most other electorates, only the National and Labour candidates have a chance of winning. Broadly speaking, it doesn’t actually matter who wins the seat out of these two. There are notable exceptions such as Epsom, where National sabotages its own candidate to let the far-right ACT candidate enter parliament. Since ACT has such a low share of the party vote (and deservedly so), Epsom is in effect an extra free seat to the right-bloc. The electorate of Ohariu no longer contributes to this distortion since Peter Dunne stood down.

In terms of local issues, transportation is my number 1 issue. Waimakariri experienced significant population growth following the 2011 Canterbury earthquakes. For example, car traffic from North Canterbury into Christchurch quintupled over six years! Infrastructure has not kept pace with this expansion, besides some currently incomplete sections of motorway and some badly positioned subdivisions. More urban sprawl is not an adequate answer. A more enduring solution would be to reduce our reliance on cars as the main mode of transportation. Regrettably, National is inherently weak on this issue and Labour’s Christchurch transport policy does not give many specifics for the Waimakariri district.

Another relevant issue is healthcare. Under National, after hours GP services were cut with the expectation that people could go to Bealey Avenue for services. National then bribed the electorate with a “health hub”, but we still don’t have after-hours services! But since the bribe worked, there’s no need to actually deliver it. Healthcare in general will be a big issue due to National’s failure to keep spending in line with population growth.

Being a semi-rural electorate, National’s fake scaremongering about Labour’s water policies will galvanise the agricultural sector’s support for the Tories. Of course, I see no problem with charging those who use and profit from the country’s natural resources, indeed we already do so with mining and petrochemicals. I lost a lot of respect and sympathy for farmers following the unhinged protest held in Morrinsville.

All up, National candidate Matt Doocey has done nothing to earn my candidate vote. That his party happens to be a bunch of disgusting, lying frauds doesn’t help either. Thus by default, my vote shall be going to Labour candidate Dan Rosewarne. Rosewarne has the best change of unseating Doocey, who will crawl into parliament on the list. More importantly, he has a very accomplished background in military/peacekeeping service, disaster relief and he has a great vision for a fairer society.

While I have expressed my enthusiasm towards the Green public transport policy, a vote for the Green candidate won’t go anywhere and will in fact make things easier for Doocey. I would encourage left voters nationwide, regardless of whether they are Labour, Green, or New Zealand First to back the strongest non-National candidate. In most cases, that will be the Labour candidate, while it will be the NZF candidate in one or two electorates.

Combined, we have outnumbered National party candidate in marginal seats like Waimakariri. Our partisan interests will be represented by our party votes, but we should do all that we can to curb the National Party’s influence. That means stopping their candidates from winning electorates by using better tactics.

 

 

My Endorsement for NZ 2017: Let’s Vote Green!

Advance voting is already open, but the main voting day is just 1 week away. For some reason opinion polling is still going on even though people are voting. On the left, the mood is tense: are we leading, or are we doomed for another defeat? While there is still strong left policy being released, Labour has made headlines for capitulating to corporate media demands that it announce specific tax details (presumably so that the corporate media can then denigrate the policy). The National Party is only too happy to stoke the scaremongering instead of putting the spotlight on their own policies.

Such a strategy is understandable when one considers how terrible National Party policies are. Recent policies include such economic illiteracy as giving away taxpayers’ money to house-buyers to make housing more “affordable”. This is akin to trying to put out a fire with gasoline, although I’m sure that talentless real estate agents (how tautological!), property speculators, and delusional first home buyers will like it. It shows that the National Party’s feigned concern for low-income earners paying taxes to support middle-class university students was nothing more than a sham. They are obviously happy to give low-income earners’ tax dollars to the comparatively wealthier first home buyers.

National has also put forward some pork-barrel privatisation in the form of selling Landcorp farms to young farmers. It smacks of tone-deafness in an election campaign where public sentiment is very much against to overseas ownership. Such damaging policies in conjunction with their terrible record in government demonstrate why it is imperative that the National Party is removed from office.

The parties best placed to offer a strong alternative government are the Labour Party and the Green Party. New Zealand First and The Opportunities Party are respectively too unreliable and too unpopular. I have decided to give my party  vote to the Green Party, for the following reasons:

  • Green Infrastructure Fund: In order to boost the uptake of renewable energy and sustainable technology, this policy involves a government kick-start to an investment fund that will lend money to those wishing to install green technologies. Private investment will be attracted by the initial government investment and the targeted 7% rate of return. I like these kinds of policies because they exploit the current economic paradigm, making a mockery of those who dismiss green tech as “financially infeasible”. Other policies such as the Kiwi climate fund (a carbon tax used to cut other taxes), tree planting, a commitment to 100% renewable electricity by 2030 and fossil fuel divestment also have my support.
  • Money for Students’ sake: A series of policies that involve a universal student allowance for postgraduate students (those who most deserve it) and free public transport for students. They have also indicated their support for Labour’s three free years of tertiary study. It is heartening to see the left move away from the user-pays model for education. User-pays is a good idea for pollution control and resource consumption, but it is not a good fit for education. It is unnecessary to force tuition fees on students when the public benefits from their skills and they will indirectly pay for their education in the form of higher income taxes.
  • Cash for Trash: Whenever I look on a Pump/h2go bottle, there is a little note to the effect of “10c refund at SA collection depot”. This note is because of South Australia’s container deposit scheme. If you collect discarded bottles, cans or cartons and return them to a collection depot, you are given a 10c refund from the purchase of the bottle. Thus there is an incentive to dispose of empty containers in a responsible fashion rather than allowing trash to accumulate in the ecosphere.
  • Public Transport in Christchurch: If there’s one thing that will improve my quality of life, it’s this policy. Living in the Waimakariri and Selwyn districts, workers face long commutes into Christchurch. I am fortunate that I am able to set my work hours to avoid the worst of the traffic, but there are much better ways I can spend an hour of my day instead of driving. On buses and trains, I could read, mark undergraduate work, or do work on a laptop computer. I would then have more free time since I could spend less time physically at my office for the same amount of work completed. There are also wider benefits: fewer cars on the road means reduced emissions and faster commutes for those who still need to travel by car.
  • That old devil called the 5% threshold: Ever since the disproportionate indignation towards Metiria Turei’s admission of welfare fraud and the rise of Jacindamania, the Green Party polling has not looked as healthy. If any party receives less than 5% of the vote and no constituency seats, then it gets no parliamentary representation. It is unlikely that Labour will be able to govern alone and if National leads Labour, then they benefit from a wasted sub-5% Green vote. Note that New Zealand First also has this problem; I would encourage voters to support NZF if one can tolerate their more retrograde social policies.

Presuming a Labour-Green government is the outcome of the election, I can’t expect all of these policies to be implemented. Deals will need to be struck and the negotiation strength of the Greens will be proportional to the seats that they win. Labour Party policies are also very good, so I have no issue, in fact an expectation that the Greens will enter into a coalition with them.

Continuing with the neoliberal status-quo is not the safe and dependable option that National has made it out to be. Change is necessary to respond to looming challenges such as climate change, the reappearance of fascism and an economy transformed by technology. Labour and the Greens offer change for the better, with policies that seek to improve the quality of life in New Zealand. That is a change worth voting for on September 23.

This endorsement is only for the party vote, I’ll cover the candidate vote for the Waimakariri electorate later next week (hint: I’ll be endorsing the Labour Party candidate).

New Zealand Election 2017: Fake News Makes an Appearance

The current state of play in New Zealand’s general election is radically different from two months ago. Then Labour Party leader Andrew Little valiantly stepped aside in favour of the charming and articulate Jacinda Ardern who has done well to communicate a raft of popular policies. The public has responded in turn, Labour has now led the National Party for two successive One News/Colmar Brunton opinion polls.

Where there’s strong Labour polling, desperate National party dirty tricks follow. This week, finance minister Steven Joyce claimed that Labour had failed to account for $11.7 billion of announced spending. This claim has widely been regarded as false, even by right-wing economists. Much of the spending will in fact be paid for from operating expenses. Humourously, it has also been revealed that Joyce failed 8 economics papers at university (which he attended for free). The events of this week have demonstrated that he is unfit to serve as finance minister.

Even though swathes of analysts have dismissed Joyce’s claim, the fact that the media reported it in the first place has the potential to cause unwarranted damage to Labour’s electoral fortune. The only person who has piped up in agreement with Joyce was Prime Minister Bill English. As a Catholic, it comes as no surprise that he doesn’t have a problem accepting falsehoods.

So let’s tentatively say the fake news budget hole backfired on the Tories. More fake news was ready to take its place. This time it’s from the obscure Down syndrome advocacy group Saving Downs who have taken issue with Ardern’s pledge to decriminalise abortion. Saving Downs doesn’t like this stance and decided to extract sympathy for their position by fabricating an image to make it look like Labour’s policy was more extreme and would allow abortions up until birth.

By plying fake news about Labour Party policy, Saving Downs has played into the hands of anti-choice interests. The anti-choice viewpoint is generally dishonest and morally inconsistent (try it for yourself). We should respect the bodily autonomy of pregnant people who should be able to choose to terminate their pregnancy for any reason at any time. Those reasons include results from (optional) medical tests that suggest the quality of life of the resulting person may be compromised.

The Labour Party is to be commended for putting forward a strong economic vision that rightfully makes wealthy property owners, resource extractors and polluters pay more tax. At the same time, Labour is committing to spending on initiatives that will provide more opportunities for the public. Similarly, Jacinda Ardern should be commended for front-footing New Zealand’s shameful criminalisation of abortion by advocating for the rights of pregnant people. Conversely, fake news purveyors such as Steven Joyce and Saving Downs must be condemned by the mainstream media in the strongest terms possible. Our democracy must be protected from the manipulation of the populace that fake news seeks to achieve. I can only hope that future polling (and the election result) shows that Kiwi voters see straight through these deplorable tactics.

New Zealand Election 2017: A Tale of Two Political Spectra

I have largely been isolated from the election campaign being away in the Northern Hemisphere. When I left New Zealand, the media hysteria over Green Party leader Metiria Turei’s resignation was coming to an end and Jacindamania was in full swing. While I’ve been away, low quality broadcaster Mike Hosking revealed himself to be a racist and a dumbarse, Peter Dunne gave up and Gareth Morgan was able to gain some attention by being Trump-like.

In our heavily metricised society, even political opinions can be quantified. This usually takes the form of a two axis economic-social map. You are asked a series of relevant questions, your answers dictate the position of your personal co-ordinate on the map. The benchmark for this is the Political Compass. I’ve also had a look at TVNZ’s  Vote Compass, a NZ specific political spectrum calculator.

Since I only have one personality, my position on both charts is very similar. Here’s my Political compass result relative to their assessment of the NZ political parties:

NZ_polCompass_wMe

and my VoteCompass result:

NZ_voteCompass

The big difference between the two charts is the position of the Labour Party. The Political Compass denotes Labour as centre-right economically and slightly socially authoritarian. Like every other Western social democratic party, it’s had an identity crisis during this neoliberal error era. Meanwhile, TVNZ’s Vote Compass marks Labour as extreme economic left and socially progressive.

Not that I’m complaining, I’m thrilled that Labour is a liberal-left party that is closely in line with my thinking. Although I can’t help but wonder if this placement can be used by disingenuous commentators and hacks to attack Labour as “far-left” in an attempt to dissuade their increasingly large support base? Maybe TVNZ has exaggerated the difference so that the politically uniformed don’t falsely declare: “they’re all the same”?

Perhaps the Political Compass is a bit pessimistic, I’ve been impressed with Labour’s policy releases so far. These include: some free tertiary education, making water users cover the cost of their damaging activities and strong public transport investment are all ideas I am on-board with. Where I diverge from Labour is in my radicalism. Relevant to the examples above, I think that three years of free tertiary education is not enough and more should be done to limit the use of ICE-powered vehicles.

But the choice is clear: I can either get some of what I want, or I can get lots of things I don’t want; such as more privatisations, illusory GDP growth and more user pays (unless you’re a dairy farmer). Far-left, or centre-right, labels shouldn’t really matter. Policy should. Exactly which party I’ll vote for is still to be determined, but given the policies it will clearly be for a Labour-led government.

UK 2017: May Loses the Unloseable Election

I’ve been rather quiet about the snap-election called in the United Kingdom that took place on June 8. This was for two reasons: (1) it was completely unnecessary and was a contradiction by Prime Minister Theresa May who had promised not to call an election, and (2) I was terrified, UK Labour under the leadership of Jeremy Corbyn was polling very poorly and under unwarranted media scrutiny. It looked like a disaster was on the cards.

The campaign was fascinating, the UK Conservative Party was able to squander a 20% lead in the polls to a 2.3% lead on voting day, while Corbyn led UK Labour to their best result since the early Blair years. It was the result those of us on the left had hoped for, but didn’t hope for too strongly given the past heartbreaks we’ve endured. There’s a few points that I would like to raise from the whole event

Labour’s messaging was superb, from the leaked manifesto which offered policies that appealed to marginalised Britons, to turning the “weak on security” meme back onto the Tories with their criticism of spending cuts to police and fire services. The Labour result was extraordinary, the vote share was now up to 40%, with 12.9 million votes, which eclipses Milliband’s result from the 2015 election.

Thus Corbyn’s position as Labour leader is now secure and there is no prospect of a leadership challenge, with the exception of the moronic Chris Leslie who had another go with the now discredited Blairite slogans. I was always a fan or Corbyn, like Bernie Sanders in the USA, he had the potential to redefine politics with his straight-talking decency. I was impressed by his substance over style manner and how he would relay questions from the public during PMQs. I can think of no better representatives for the people than Corbyn and those who follow his example.

It was amusing to see right-wingers give themselves whiplash by shifting the goalposts following Corbyn’s better than expected result. Firstly he was criticised because he would lead Labour to a humiliating defeat. When he does well enough to strip the Tories of their majority, he is criticised for not winning. Such analysis focuses on the 56 seat gap lead the Tories have while ignoring that this is a distortion caused by the FPP system. If the seats were allocated by PR, then the gap would only be 15 seats which doesn’t look like a great victory? It comes as no surprise that right-wingers choose to ignore FPP distortions as it benefits their party and demonstrates their contempt for democracy when it doesn’t go their way.

There’s another great irony in this result. One of the most common criticisms of MMP, the electoral system used in my home country of New Zealand is that minor parties hold undue influence when forming a coalition with a major party. This was predicted to bring economic ruin (which hasn’t happened) by failed finance ministers and corporate robber-barons. FPP was praised for producing strong governments with working majorities, even though it screwed the will of the people. MMP was derided for allowing the “tail to wag the dog”. And lo, here we have an FPP election that produces that exact result!

To hold on to power, the Tories look set to do a deal with the corrupt, wasteful retrogrades known as the Democratic Unionist Party. This leads to all kinds of problems in terms of the Northern Irish peace process and concessions that will be unpopular in the UK. May’s hold on the Tory leadership is also weakened, although nobody seems interested in replacing her. Time will tell whether this government can last, or if a new election will be held. So long as Labour doesn’t trigger it (parties causing unnecessary elections seems to be unpopular), they are well placed to win next time around, although post-election polling is still thin on the ground at the time of writing.

Most importantly, this is a huge defeat for vapid centrism, the prevailing line of thought in 21st century centre-left social democratic political parties the world over. Their obsession with the vague concept of electability has been demonstrated to be a falsehood. It’s no longer good enough to be “not as bad” as the lunatics occupying the political right-wing, now is the time to make a positive case for popular left policies in a way that involves the public. Now is the time for Jeremy Corbyn.

France 2017: Le Pen’s Strange Definition of Secularism

I’ve written about the upcoming French presidential election in the past. Since then, free-market lunatic Francois Fillon has tanked following the revelations that he gave fake jobs to his family members. Benoit Hamon and the PS have slipped off the radar as a resurgent Jean-Luc Melenchon has just about drawn level with Fillon in polling in the high teens. Centrist Emmanuel Macron and extreme right-winger Marine Le Pen are level in the lead, both polling in the low to mid twenties. The trend as of mid-April shows Macron, Hamon and Le Pen losing support with big gains to Melenchon and a slight rise for Fillon.

Given the large number of undecided/abstaining voters and the rapidly changing trends, any two of the top four could succeed in the first round of voting on Sunday (French time). The situation in French politics is such that it was covered by British-American comedian John Oliver in Last Week Tonight. In general the segment was light on policy and highlighted the deep unpopularity of figures such as Valls, Fillon and Macron who were caught on camera getting hit with food items. Interestingly, there was no mention of Hamon which should be a signal to his voters to switch to Melenchon in order to see their interests represented.

Most of the segment covered Le Pen, who draws obvious parallels with Brexit, Trump, and now the outrageous Turkish constitutional referendum (although I can’t imagine she would like to be compared with the latter event).  Oliver pointed out that even though she has polished the FN from when her father was in charge, she still lets some unpleasant ideas slip through. One example of this was when interviewed, Le Pen stated that she would ban all religious clothing. Le Pen has also stated that she is attached to secularism. Her ban on religious clothing is no doubt inspired by her staunch secularism.

As the title alludes to, I think that a ban on religious clothing has nothing to do with secularism and in fact goes against secular principles. Firstly, let’s look at a definition of secularism from the National Secular Society (UK):

Secularism is a principle that involves two basic propositions. The first is the strict separation of the state from religious institutions. The second is that people of different religions and beliefs are equal before the law.

One of the misunderstandings about secularism (normally by religious fanatics) is that it is akin to compulsory atheism or involves preferential treatment for atheists. Not true, if anything the above definition is a statement of neutrality. This position of neutrality is beneficial to the most people as should be obvious to anyone capable of empathy. While a powerful group may be upset that it can’t do whatever it likes, less powerful groups do not experience oppression.

In terms of the second part of the NSS definition, I think that bans on clothing represent a deviation from neutrality and indicate a bias in favour of irreligion. While I think an irreligious society is generally better than a religious society, turning everyone into an atheist will not solve all the world’s problems (just read PZ Myers’ blog and consider some of the examples of asshole atheism that he has confronted). Bans on clothing push the widespread understanding of secularism towards the cartoon definition that religionists use to claim that secularism is persecuting them. Let’s avoid that and acknowledge that individuals should be free to wear the clothing of their choice.

It’s also interesting that in the West, non-religious and Christian people wear clothing which is generally not explicitly associated with religion. That’s probably due to privilege bias and thinking that their “normal” is the only “normal”. I can’t help but think secularism is being misappropriated by Le Pen as a tool to bash religious minorities in France. Bashing religious minorities is a godsend to terrorist organisations who will happily recruit those who have been persecuted. Terrorist organisations will find things a lot harder when the mainstream of their religion have secure comfortable lifestyles, individual rights and freedoms to participate in society and a sense of belonging. True secularism offers us all of those things. Le Pen’s policies only serve to enrage and endanger us.

My preference is Melenchon, whose concerns about economic insecurity are more credible than Le Pen’s. He recognises that neoliberal economics has underlined the noble vision of the European Union. Hamon also has some interesting policies such as a UBI, and investment in infrastructure and the environment. However he is a long shot on current polling. I was wrong to characterise Macron as a Bernie Sanders type figure in my last French post (well spotted Old Deuteronomy), it is clear now that Melenchon is deserving of this sobriquet. It’s now up to France to do what the US couldn’t: put a socialist voice in charge for constructive change.

*You may notice that I haven’t used any of the accented letters in the candidate names. That’s because I have a US English keyboard and I can’t be arsed remembering the ALT codes. This is Zeitung f­ür Katzen, not Journal pour les chats!